State revisions show better private sector job growth for county than reported
Steuben County received a double batch of positive economic news Tuesday with the New York State Department of Labor reporting the county’s jobless rate fell last month while the 2018 private sector job count was revised upward.
According to the Department of Labor, Steuben County’s unemployment rate decreased to 5.4 percent in February after rates of 5.5 percent in January and 6.9 percent in February 2018.
Steuben County’s employed resident count went up by 500 between February 2018 and February 2019, the labor department said, coming in at 40,500 employed workers last month. The number of unemployed residents fell by 700 over the 12-month period to 2,300 in February.
Despite the downtick in its jobless rate, Steuben’s unemployment ranking fell from 39th in January to 41st in February among New York’s 62 counties. The Department of Labor reported higher numbers in January for total employed Steuben County residents (41,300) and higher participation the Resident Civilian Labor Force, which was at 43,700 in January before dropping to 42,800 last month.
Region-wide the story was much the same for February: a lower jobless rate but fewer employed workers compared to the month before. The Southern Tier unemployment rate ticked down from 5 to 4.9 percent between January and February as the number of unemployed fell from 14,400 to 13,900. There were about 400 fewer people employed in February compared to January, according to the Department of Labor, with the employed count at 272,000 last month.
Meanwhile, the Steuben County economy was slightly stronger in 2018 than previously reported, according to revised labor department data.
“When we first lay out those statistics, they’re based on a sampling — responses from a sampling of employers,” explained Christian Harris, a Southern Tier Region labor analyst. “Eventually we get more complete responses from employers, basically closer to the survey population, so we may adjust those survey estimates up or down based on what additional information we’ve gathered.”
Following revisions, Steuben’s Private Sector job count’s annual average for the year was revised upward by 400 jobs. The adjusted monthly Private Sector count was determined to be 30,300.
“Steuben County was just as strong as the estimates, if not stronger, on the hiring side,” Harris said. “So we have more jobs than as first estimated in Steuben County. Nothing significant as far as hiring as what we’re seeing downstate, but still in positive territory around the one-percent growth rate which is respectable for our area based on historic estimates.”
The number of employed residents saw some upward movement after revisions as well. Following revisions, the number of Steuben County residents employed in April 2018 went up by 400 to 40,000 and by 100 in August to 41,000.
Harris added, “As you can see, Steuben actually showed a bit of a better gain than first anticipated, so the statistics were upheld and augmented a little bit. So that is obviously good news for Steuben County.”
Harris is not overly concerned about February’s jobs lull.
“It looks like our gains are a little muted, but I wouldn’t get too excited about that,” he said. “We usually see a slow down of hiring nationally the first couple months. I think that’s just a world view.
“I don’t know of anything substantial economically that should keep this (slow down) going for very much longer. There’s still a significant number of job posts out there, and I think the hiring will probably commence again, especially as we get into the warmer months. We’ll see seasonal employment kind of surge moving forward, probably in line, maybe a little stronger than, what we’ve seen in the past.”
Harris hopes that the shrinking in the county’s and region’s Resident Civilian Labor Force is a short-term blip.
“We did see the trend in almost every county of labor force growth actually in the last three to four months, depending on the area, which is a notable reversal of what we’ve seen a number of years prior,” he said. “We want to see more residents engaged in work rather than sitting on the sidelines and/or unable to find employment.”
Allegany County
The unemployment rate was 6.3 percent in February compared to 6.7 percent in January and 7.8 percent in February 2018. Allegany County ranks 59th out of 62 state counties in terms of unemployment.
Allegany County’s private sector job count was 10,500 last month, 400 fewer than February 2018, but the the number of employed residents — 18,500 — was 200 more than January and only 100 fewer than 12 months ago.
Harris weighed the jobs impact of the Wellsville Kmart closing, noting that higher population areas are better at weathering the loss.
“You take a look at both Elmira and Binghamton, they see some erosion in retail, but we still have a lot of openings for retail and management for retail, even in the face of that,” Harris said. “As far as the workers go, the opportunities are still there. There may be more (people) competing for them, but the opportunities are still there. The communities, especially the small, rural communities are where they’ll feel it the most.
“There are more options in the bigger metropolises because they’re just more populous, so we just had other chains proliferating around there, and they can more than fill the void of those legacy retailers whose model just didn’t keep up with what was desired in those bigger areas with more competition.”
He addressed the options of smaller communities after a major store closing.
“They’re likely going to be filled in by a less, another, retail chain of sorts. Dollar stores seem to be fitting the bill in some areas,” Harris said. “They might very well have three or four pop up for that one Kmart.
“On the net, you’ll have less employees, but it’s more closer to market for those rural communities. That seems to be the model that’s working now.”
The state’s area unemployment rates rely in part on the results of the Current Population Survey, which contacts approximately 3,100 households in New York State each month.